Technology and Macroeconomic Turbulence: A Panel ARDL Analysis of Stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic factors—namely inflation, Bank Indonesia's benchmark interest rate (BI Rate), and the Price to Book Value (PBV)—on the stock prices of technology sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The analysis covers 12 technology firms during the quarterly period from 2021 to 2024. Unit root tests confirm that all variables are stationary, allowing for the estimation of both short-term and long-term dynamics. The findings indicate that in the short term, only changes in the BI Rate significantly affect stock prices with a negative direction. In contrast, all variables exhibit significant positive effects on stock prices in the long term. The PBV emerges as the most influential factor, reflecting investor confidence in firm valuation. Diagnostic tests support the model's robustness and validity. These results offer empirical insights for investors and policymakers in understanding market behavior amid macroeconomic volatility, particularly within Indonesia’s growing tech sector.