FOOD SECURITY THREATS IN INDONESIA: A REVIEW OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS

Abstract

The food crop sub-sector, particularly rice farming in Indonesia, has seen limited progress for nearly three-quarters of a century. Farmers continue to experience hardship due to low incomes from their largely subsistence-level agricultural activities. Data indicates a worrying trend of shrinking agricultural land, with the average land size owned by farmers continuing to decline. Moreover, the farming population is dominated by individuals over the age of 45, signaling that agriculture is increasingly unattractive to the younger generation. Consequently, land conversion from agriculture to non-agricultural use continues unabated. This reality stands in stark contrast to the government's goals as outlined in the second pillar of Asta Cita, which aims to strengthen national defense and promote self-sufficiency through food security. There is a clear gap between these aspirations and the current condition of Indonesia’s agricultural sector, where sustainability in food crop production remains a low priority. This study employs Neural Network methods and Agent-Based Modeling simulations to identify the most critical root causes of food insecurity in Indonesia and propose solutions for addressing interregional logistics and food trade flow issues. It also seeks to prioritize problems requiring immediate resolution and predict, through simulation, how many years remain before there are no more land-cultivating farmers in Indonesia. A breakthrough initiative—Borderless Farming Integrated with Corporate Farming—is proposed to overcome logistics and food trade challenges between regions, ultimately aiming to improve farmers’ welfare.